The Over/Under on President Palin

FiveThirtyEight.com has been applying its rigorous logic to the prospect of Republicans putting Sarah Palin forth as the presidential candidate in 2012. This is murky water for statisticians because there are no hard numbers available, but they take a stab anyway. First off, the question of rather Sarah will run at all. Nate Silver thinks she will:

2012 is a year when an incumbent, Barack Obama, will almost certainly be running for re-election, and incumbents seats are much tougher to pick up than open ones...Palin's polling has gone somewhat sour against her potential GOP rivals, which might deter her from entering.

...(however) was quitting the Alaska governorship -- particularly in the sudden and disorganized way that Palin did it -- a decision characteristic of someone who carefully ponders all the facts and circumstances before jumping to a conclusion? Not hardly. Palin is impulsive, impatient, ambitious, thrill-seeking: not the type of politician to prudently wait for a better moment.

Spoken like a guy who values logic above all else. And then Nate goes on to list ten reasons why the GOP might nominate such a controversial candidate. Then Tom Schaller, who has a cash bet with Nate about this, lists ten reasons why they might not.

Obviously I like the idea of candidate Palin because I believe she's a polarizing figure who would most easily ensure a second Obama term. Chances are good that the GOP candidate is someone we're not aware of yet though.