Loyalty Above All

I say a lot of bad things about Republicans but I have to admit, they are loyal to each other. When the rest of the world was saying "Donald Rumsfeld is some kind of idiot!" and Rumsfeld himself offered to  resign, Bush wouldn't let him. When Michael Steele was making a particular mess of the RNC, did they fire him immediately? No they waited a long, long time. Even when Tom DeLay was facing expulsion from the house for ethics violations, their first move was to float a bill changing the house rules to allow him to stay. Couldn't quite get that one to fly, but they took a stab at it.

Which is why Broward County Supervisor Of Elections Dr. Brenda Snipes has nothing to worry about. Even though it's about two weeks after the election and they just found over 900 ballots, uncounted, in a warehouse.

Snipes said there is no reason for alarm. "I've run several elections here, and this election was run no different than any other," she said. "I think the difference with this election is that there was a close race between the two presidential candidates, and there was pressure put on everyone, including our office, to get all of the votes, count, count, count, so you don't have an opportunity to check every box that comes back because you got to get what you got in hand and get it out of there, so if the voters would rather that we kind of sit back and relax and then clean up and find ballots. Then I think they would really be very upset." 

She said that further complicating this election was a very long ballot filled with proposed amendments. Snipes has promised that her department will meet their deadline by Sunday.

Come on, you heard the lady. It was a close presidential race. How could anyone in Florida conceive a thing like THAT happening? It's like the very long lines at the ballot. Who'd have thought people might VOTE in this thing?

Anyway, look forward to the interviews in 2016. Snipes will be great then.

I Was Wrong About Orly Taitz

Yes I made fun of her when she announced that she was running for a California senate position against Diane Feinstein. Yes we had a primary election yesterday out here. We have a new system where the candidates are the top two vote getters, whatever party. They're still tallying, and Ms. Taitz came up 4th.

Still I can't help but think she was thinking about the other famous election in Minnesota* Wisconsin when she said these things.

I will update you on the numbers, as more ballots are received, however the numbers are suspiciously off all 4 polls taken from March 7 until June 3rd. This is the reason, why first and for most (sic) we need transparency in the voting mchines. (sic) 

At the moment nobody has a clue, how these machines are programmed. There is a high probability that different values were given to votes cast for different candidates. In Germany all electronic voting machines and electronic balot (sic) counting machines were banned because those are so easily rigged.

She, like Stuart Varney, is a real American. She doubts the results of the Minnesota election, because it's so different from the polling. And its not like Scott Walker is above chicanery - he's being investigated on criminal charges relating to political cheating. Fight, Democrats! Don't take the so-called "results" at face value!

* thanks, perpetually anonymous commentor!

Whee!

The roller-coaster of Republican primary politics may have arced again: Newt Gingrich is dropping in the polls. I'd say just give all the money to Romney already but it looks like Ron Paul has been the candidate they've really wanted all along; then once they dump him there's still Santorum and Huntsman. And the only one they've actually forced out of the race has been the African-American, because the nomination goes to whoever is peaking the week they nominate.

Gingrich is probably a little relieved - I don't think he really wanted to be president. He just was looking for a little Tiffany's pocket change. Romney really wants to be president, unless polls show that he shouldn't want to be.

Oh, Is THAT Happening Too?

You may recall that a "super-committee" of congress was charged with finding a way to balance the budget, probably as a way to not tie up ALL of Congress so they could go on with the important business of not accomplishing other things. Well, the SC has announced that they are done with their job of not accomplishing their task.

Who is to blame?

The surest sign of who the American people will blame is this: look at the front page of the Fox News website right now. Click to read full size.

What is most noticeable is the complete absence of stories about the super-committee. Maybe they covered it yesterday, but the rest of the lamestream media seems to think that it's somehow more important than our friends in the rust belt, or Jimmy Fallon's mean joke on Michele Bachmann. Which she no doubt wouldn't have gotten anyway.

And meanwhile, also from FoxNews this afternoon:

I don't think they're gonna be able to pin this one on him.

Sarah Didn't Move Quick Enough

She should have un-quit yesterday while the void was still open; now it looks like the tea-party sentiment is moving towards career politician, lobbyist, campaign-finance fraudster and serial adulterer Newt Gingrch. Gingrich/Cain 2011! Or Cain/Gingrich! Whichever optics work better!

I think most Republicans would agree that this is a terrible choice, and they'd hate to see them running the country, and they'd never want either of these guys as president in a million years. And at least they'd be better than that Obummer guy.

Something Good Comes Out Of The Debt Ceiling Wrangle

According to a new national survey, for the first time ever most Americans don't believe their own member of Congress deserves re-election.

And the CNN/ORC International Poll released Tuesday also indicates that while Republicans may have had the upper hand in the recent battle over raising the debt ceiling, they appear to have lost a lot of ground with the public and the party's unfavorable rating is now at an all time high.

Only 41 percent of people questioned say the lawmaker in their district in the U.S. House of Representatives deserves to be re-elected - the first time ever in CNN polling that that figure has dropped below 50 percent. Forty-nine percent say their representative doesn't deserve to be re-elected in 2012. And with ten percent unsure, it's the first time that a majority has indicated that they would boot their representative out of office if they had the chance today.

"That 41 percent, in the polling world, is an amazing figure. Throughout the past two decades, in good times and bad, Americans have always liked their own member of Congress despite abysmal ratings for Congress in general," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Now anti-incumbent sentiment is so strong that most Americans are no longer willing to give their own representative the benefit of the doubt. If that holds up, it could be an early warning of an electorate that is angrier than any time in living memory."

Of course, it's too early to see if this attitude will hold until election time. However, assuming the parties hold onto their incumbents rather than run new blood in their place, this has got to be good news for liberals.

And bad news for stability, but that ship has sailed already.

We could also lose Obama next year but with Republican disapproval at an all time high, I don't think Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann is in line to replace him.

Like A Pendulum Do

The free market may, in the opinion of John Avlon of the Daily Beast, bring about the return of sensible political discourse. He uses the occasion of Keith Olbermann's departure from MSNBC to look at the state of cable news ratings.

Here's a snapshot side-by-side comparison of their slide: On January 20th of last year, Olbermann reached an estimated 251,000 people aged 25-to-54 at 8 p.m., according to data kept by TVNewser.com. Exactly one year later, this past Thursday, he reached only 198,000—a decline of nearly 20 percent.

Beck's collapse was even steeper over the same period. On January 20th of 2010, he was flying high at a point of maximum influence coincident with Tea Party enthusiasm, reaching 965,000 in the 24-to-55 demographic. On 1/20/11, Beck reached roughly one-third that number at 5 p.m.—only 377,000.

To be sure, even at their reduced rates of viewership, both men were leaders at their respective networks. But the trend lines are clear—both hosts were trending down by double digits in the first four months of last year—and comforting from an independent's perspective.

Similarly, I'm not supposed to mention someone all through February, but check out this trending!


(if it isn't working, try this.)

Congress, meanwhile is trending up since November. You could argue that it's because there are more Republicans now, or you could argue that seeing them actually compromise and pass a bunch of laws in the lame duck session was appealing to people.



For my part, I'm tired of hateful, demonizing rhetoric. In addition to the corrosiveness, it really paints people into rhetorical corners which limit them later on.

Do The American People Even WANT Compromise?

Obama Approval Over/Under: 45.4/49.6          Net -4.2

Congressional Approval Over/Under 21.3/73.0          Net -51.7

How's That Generic Republican Doing, Anyway?

The chart above is the result of a little number-crunching that Nate Silver did, inspired by a Quinnipiac poll that suggested that Nancy Pelosi is the least-liked politician going right now. And indeed, the other polls he surveyed bears that conclusion out.

But look at the rest of that! Man-without-a-pulse Dick Cheney only slightly higher up! He saved the free world, you know. Your next president, Sarah Palin, has lower numbers than Newt Gingrich AND George  W. Bush. Logically the candidate in 2012 should be Mike Huckabee. D'ya suppose the base will let THAT happen? Anyway, look at that gap in the middle - that's the people who doen't have much of an opinion one way or t'other. They decided that John McCain would be a better choice a couple of years ago.

Oh, and there are the most popular politicians on the list... why it's Bill and Hillary Clinton! I think somebody at Fox news took their eye off the ball! Without a steady stream of lies and opinion-masquerading-as-news, people forget what they are supposed to think. Somebody get on that, will ya?

And While I'm At it - Ladies and Gentlemen, the Next President of the United States

If she can just keep out of the public eye for the next two years, she's got a chance!

Don't Fear the Republican

Not in California, anyway.





The polls are with me on this one. Given the choice between billionaire Republican women I'd choose Whitman over Fiorina, if only because e-Bay was a much better run company under her watch. Still, until Brown says something that really pisses me off (probably involving mandatory wheat germ in school lunches) I'm going for the Democrat because they don't want to scuttle the executive branch.

The Grand Canyon

Here's the Phoenix Fox Affiliate, talking about Arizona's big primary today:

The Secretary of State's Office is expecting 20-25 percent of voters to hit the polls Tuesday.

...Political analyst Mike O'Neil has his theory. "It has been a pretty nasty campaign in some of the races. There has been fighting back and forth and it may not be clear who is telling the truth. That may induce some voters to wait until the last minute -- there may be a little bit of a surge on Election Day -- but probably the biggest factor in suppressing turnout is the fact that the big enchiladas, the gubernatorial and senatorial nominations, appear to be fixed. And those are the marquee contests that tend to bring people in to vote."

Polls show that John McCain has a big lead over JD Hayworth, and the governor's race between Jan Brewer and Terry Goddard won't be addressed until the November election.

So, mighty Tea Party, how's that mobilization going?

Worth Keeping An Eye On, Addendum

Republicans could take back the house - all they have to do is convince enough Democrats to vote for them.

Worth Keeping An Eye On

This, like all pollster.com graphs, updates every time you look at it. As I write today, Carly Fiorina is trending up slightly faster than Barbar Boxer is trending up. Meanwhile:



This is a surprise - I read a poll today that insisted that Brown was losing in this one, but today the aggregate poll shows him ahead. It's alomst like someone had chosen a poll to support his conclusion, instead of analyzing the data and then forming an opinion! It's too bad because I can't reuse my line "oh no! We could wind up with a REPUBLICAN governer in California!" Well, I cracked myself up, anyway.

Just A Reminder

Feel free to check back... updates daily!

More Fun With Polls

This chick who writes in once in a while (this time calling herself George W. Bush) called my attention to another poll! If I were the RNC, I wouldn't lose too much sleep over this one either:

A new poll from Public Policy Polling finds just a small amount of daylight between the amount of people who would prefer Barack Obama or George W. Bush to be president. The national survey found that 48 percent prefer Obama as president, while 46 percent would rather it be Bush.

Good heavens, miss him yet? Well, probably not. A reliable poll generally has two characteristics - it samples at least a thousand people, and it's a random sampling. Fail on both counts. First off, the RCP article admits there were only 622 people questioned.

Here's the even sneakier part. Look at the PDF.

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 21% 
Moderate......................................................... 37%
Conservative ................................................... 42%

So according to the poll, more Americans are hard conservative than moderate? That's interesting. Most polling wouldn't come to that conclusion.  Nor would a typical random sampling get these results:

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 50%
Man................................................................. 50%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican ...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other .......................................... 24%

No random sampling in the nation has numbers this even. People who self-identify as Republicans nowadays is around 26% this week, according to most everyone else. Weirdly Democrats and Independents are at 34% apiece, but you see where I'm going. I think this poll is weighted by inflating the opinions of a quarter of the respondents as though they were almost half.

Anyway, believe what you want I guess, but don't believe this poll.

Rasmussen Is The Oracle Of Our Times

Guess what? If the election was held today, Ron Paul could likely succeed Barack Obama as President of the United States! Who'd have thought?

Super-reliable Rasmussen's headline says it all: Election 2012: Barack Obama 42%, Ron Paul 41%. This clinches it - Republican party, forget Mitt Romney. Commit ALL YOUR RESOURCES TO CANDIDATE PAUL right now! This one's a winner!

Tea Party Not As Popular As You've Been Led To Believe

See below for a question from the most recent Fox News poll.

10. – 16. I'm going to read you the names of several individuals. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you've never heard of someone, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE)
SCALE: 1. Favorable 2. Unfavorable 3. (Can't say) 4. Never heard of 
*** SUMMARY CHART ***
Favorable
Barack Obama 50%
The Internal Revenue Service 49%
The Democratic Party 42%
The Republican Party 40%
The Tea Party Movement 36%
Nancy Pelosi 29%
Harry Reid 16%


Yes, even Fox News polls put Barack Obama, The Democrats, the Republicans AND THE IRS higher than the Tea Party. As I continually say, bias in news reporting doesn't make a difference. The IRS!!!! Don't forget to file this week.


Still, watch your back Harry Reid.

You Know What? I Can't Blame 'Em

I've been registered as independent myself since the nineties. I usually vote Democratic because there are seldom any credible independent candidates, but maybe that will be changing soon.

Update: My friend WAMK is of the opinion that only the likely voters matter, so here's THAT graph.



I guess the revolution will have to wait!

As If Polls Mattered

Americans HATE OBAMACARE!

Well it's trending good anyway.