Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Congratulations Scott Brown

Well well well. My Democrat friends seem to have gambled that they could spook Republicans by running the absolute worst candidate in the worst campaign and still win. That audacious plan has backfired.

It's not the sea change that some will suggest; the "supermajority" was tenuous at best and hardly filibuster-proof. Hell, one of the people they count on to vote with them was threatening to filibuster. This does mean reconciliation for the Health Care plan, if they're smart. And maybe the public option goes back in now.

It's a small election but it is going to have a big impact on both parties strategies. Worst case scenario: Democrats cave on everything in an attempt to reach out to teabaggers. Best case scenario: Teabaggers start throwing their weight around until they do something really odious and scare away the moderates for good.

It will be interesting to see how someone as reportedly far-right as Scott Brown fares in a moderate-to-liberal state like Massachusetts. I bet he softens his positions enough that the Republicans abandon him within, oh, a year and a half.


Publius said...

I agree with your sentiments for the most part.

Danielk said...

Presumably with the "best case" and "worst case" designations reversed.

I'm finding out more about Scott Brown today and what I heard is that he's more liberal than Olympia Snowe; so the teabaggers are cheering the election of a man they'll consider a traitor before long. Awkward!

Publius said...

That's why I keep trying to calm everyone on the right with this ridiculous "Brown for President" talk.He's fine for Mass and it's great to have a GOP win there... but let's remember that it is STILL Mass. and they are a far left, extremist set of voters.

Danielk said...

I bet he winds up being the east coast Arnold.

Has it been a month already? said...

Brown won't get re-elected in 2012, which won't be a surprise to anyone. Not even Brown. This was a "perfect storm" period in time. Had Teddy died six months earlier, Brown doesn't even come close to winning.

He was elected to do one thing- be the 41st vote against Obamacare. We are already seeing it die, and dude isn't even in D.C. yet. If he sides with Dems on half of the legislation between now and then, I'll still consider him a success.

Look at it this way-there was a zero-percent chance of Teddy voting for anything remotely Conservative. If Brown only sides with Conservatives 35% of the time, it will be a huge increase. I do think he'll be on the Conservative side more than 35% of the time, too.

Look at it this way. With Teddy, there was a zero-percent chance of anything remotely Conservative being voted on. Anything Brown does is an improvement.

Danielk said...

I'm not so sure of that - he's a pleasant moderate and those people have a tendency to get dug in and stay for generations.