More Fun With Polls

This chick who writes in once in a while (this time calling herself George W. Bush) called my attention to another poll! If I were the RNC, I wouldn't lose too much sleep over this one either:

A new poll from Public Policy Polling finds just a small amount of daylight between the amount of people who would prefer Barack Obama or George W. Bush to be president. The national survey found that 48 percent prefer Obama as president, while 46 percent would rather it be Bush.

Good heavens, miss him yet? Well, probably not. A reliable poll generally has two characteristics - it samples at least a thousand people, and it's a random sampling. Fail on both counts. First off, the RCP article admits there were only 622 people questioned.

Here's the even sneakier part. Look at the PDF.

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 21% 
Moderate......................................................... 37%
Conservative ................................................... 42%

So according to the poll, more Americans are hard conservative than moderate? That's interesting. Most polling wouldn't come to that conclusion.  Nor would a typical random sampling get these results:

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 50%
Man................................................................. 50%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican ...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other .......................................... 24%

No random sampling in the nation has numbers this even. People who self-identify as Republicans nowadays is around 26% this week, according to most everyone else. Weirdly Democrats and Independents are at 34% apiece, but you see where I'm going. I think this poll is weighted by inflating the opinions of a quarter of the respondents as though they were almost half.

Anyway, believe what you want I guess, but don't believe this poll.