Something to Look For In Tonight's Debate

FiveThirtyEight, the poll aggregators, currently have the vote going to Obama. Specifically the popular vote is running 51.9% to McCain's 46.5% (or what Bush would call a hyper-mandate) and the electoral vote favors Obama 345.4 to 192.6. Those margins were smaller last week before the VP Debate, in which Sarah Palin reclaimed her mantle as the not-complete-failure we all hoped for.

Thus, the stellar Palin appearance didn't help. So tonight's debate is a potential game-changer for McCain. All he has to do is solidify the support he enjoys from a handful of Democrats who favor him and the handful of Republicans who do the same. And then, my friends, he can turn this thing around.

I can't find the link now (***update: found it!***) but this morning I read an interesting piece about the weird formalist rules to be followed in this townhall debate. Among others - the candidates are allowed to walk around, but only within a certain area that doesn't intersect with the other candidate's - questioners will have their mics turned off after they ask, to prevent followups. A fun drinking game - every time McCain mavericks the rules (steps beyond the bounds, asks for a followup from a sympathetic questioner) drink up. Every time Obama mentions the economy, drink. Bonus drinks if he works the economy into a foreign policy question.

Extra special bonus drinking if Obama says to McCain: "You say there is too much Americans don't know about me... what do you want to know? Ask me." This isn't part of the drinking game per se, just a warning that if the debate goes that far into negative territory you'll need to self-medicate.

Anyway, check the polls later in the week and see how the McCain strategy is reaping votes.