Tuesday, October 28, 2008

"Tightening" - It Means Not Tightening

Michael Shearer at Swampland rounds up the opinions of some poll-watchers who believe that the race isn't tightening, it's merely no longer accelerating toward an even bigger landslide.

Gallup also charts lots of horizontals, with maybe a slight uptick for Obama.

The RCP Electoral Map is basically flat as well, with a comfortable cushion for Obama.


wamk said...

Don't look now, but Gallup has the race at Obama +2.

I guess that's not tightening now, is it?

Danielk said...

I guess it is, if you work at Gallup and you're only polling Likely Voters (traditional). Among Registered and Likely Voters (Expanded) Obama is up 7 points.

However, there does seem to be a 2 point narrowing across the board. At Gallup, anyway. Now's the time for McCain to force them to release that L.A Times Video!

wamk said...

Rasmussen: Obama +3

Danielk said...

Real Clear Politics: Obama +5.9
Five Thirty Eight: Obama +5.6

Five Thirty Eight electoral projection: Obama 348.2, McCain 189.8

Or, playing by your rules: Pew: Obama, +15

wamk said...

Two days ago, RCP had Obama at 7.4%

I know it's hard for you to fathom that the race might be tighter (there's that pesky word again!), but it is..

Danielk said...

okay, okay, it's tightening. As I predicted (quoted Obama predicting) a couple of weeks ago.