My friends on the right have made much of this graph:
The light blue line is the prediction of where unemployment would be without the stimulus, according to the Obama administration in February when they were selling the plan. The dark blue line is the prediction of where it would be WITH the plan. The dotted line: how things have actually played out.
Why should we BELIEVE these people, my friends on the right cry. The stimulus has only made things worse!
Here's my mitigating factors now, and please wait to call me a stoopid moran until I finish.
- The prediction was made, obviously, before the stimulus bill passed. And while it's true that no Republicans voted for it, the REASON they gave for not voting for it was that it spent too much money on jobs for people. Money was shuttled from job creation to tax cuts. These same Republicans are complaining now that the stimulus hasn't yet produced any jobs. And also participating in Tea Parties because they don't believe there were any tax cuts.
- There's no way of knowing if, say, suspending tax collection for a couple of years would have produced more jobs by now. And if you're selling less (which is inevitable if people are spending less, and they will be because they don't have jobs) then you're paying less taxes anyway.
- The curve of that graph, you'll notice, goes beyond this month. It's early. Stop screaming.